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Back  |  Home  >  Tools  >  Solar radiation and Energy production forecasts for PV plants


The solar radiation hourly forecast model and the electrical production of a photovoltaic system

ENEA has developed an solar radiation  hourly forecast model  for the following 24 and 48 hours, and the electricity production for a photovoltaic plant built in the Casaccia Research Center.

The required input data for the model are: the characteristics of the photovoltaic system and the forecasts of global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The model calculates and gives the following outputs: the forecast of the global hourly irradiance on the inclined plane on the photovoltaic panel (GI) [W/m²], the expected hourly power production of the considered plant [kW] and the daily produced energy [kWh].

The input information considering the PV plant are:
- the inclination of the panels: tilt and the panel orientation: azimuth,
- the location where the PV plant (latitude and longitude, difference between local and UTC time),
- nominal power of the plant,
- considered inverter efficiency,
- the temperature coefficient
listed information are all included and selected in the model of the real PV plant built in Casaccia. Inputs considering the atmosphere (Linke turbidity, albedo), α and β coefficients (estimated values for central-southern Italy) are calculated and available for the same location. The GHI forecasts are provided day by day within the numerical weather prediction model WRF.


Figure — Calculation scheme

Figure — ComESto project scheme


The calculating tool was developed as part of the Industrial Research Project ComESto - Community Energy Storage, Gestione Aggregata di Sistemi d’Accumulo dell’Energia in Power Cloud, funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (Avviso 1735 del 13.07.2017 MIUR; project code: ARS01_01259, Progetti di Ricerca Industriale e Sviluppo Sperimentale nelle 12 Aree di Specializzaione individuate del PNR 2017-2020).

All the calculation procedures, the considerations on the reliability of the model and the information of the various parameters of the PV plant are explained in detail in the Technical Report D5.3_OR5 (Previsione di producibilità e carico) of the Project ComESto, which will be available online in short notice.

Contact us:

Irena Balog,  ENEA
Giampaolo Caputo,  ENEA DTE-STSN-ITES
Francesco Spinelli,  ENEA DTE-STSN-SCIS

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